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Tropical Depression THREE-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

Issued at 800 PM PDT WED JUN 13 2012

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 140254
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012
800 PM PDT WED JUN 13 2012
 
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
GUATEMALA HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT.
SINCE THE SYSTEM IS STILL IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE...THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 305/8 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS
SITUATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO.  THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND ALL
OF THE MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
MEXICO IN ABOUT 48-60 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS
SCENARIO AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANE ENVELOPE...
BETWEEN THE TYPICALLY RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
 
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND
OVER WARM WATERS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  MOST OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE CALLS FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING...WITH THE HWRF BEING THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE.  EVEN THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING
OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  AS A RESULT...THE NHC
FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING AND BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  SINCE THE CIRCULATION IS
RELATIVELY SMALL AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS A REALISTIC POSSIBILITY DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.  THEREFORE...THE NHC FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS...LEANING TOWARD THE SHIPS AND HWRF SOLUTIONS.
 
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST HAS REQUIRED THE ISSUANCE OF A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO.
USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK AS
TYPICAL NHC FORECAST ERRORS AT 48 AND 72 HOURS ARE 80-110 N MI.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0300Z  9.4N  92.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 10.3N  93.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 11.9N  94.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 13.5N  95.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 15.0N  96.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  17/0000Z 17.2N  97.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG
 

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