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Tropical Depression TWELVE-E Forecast Advisory Number 1

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 15 2012

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 151449
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122012
1500 UTC SAT SEP 15 2012
 
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 123.5W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 123.5W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 123.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 14.1N 124.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 14.5N 125.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.3N 126.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.4N 127.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.0N 130.0W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 20.5N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 21.5N 132.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 123.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 

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