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Tropical Depression TWO-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN MAY 20 2012

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 210246
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
800 PM PDT SUN MAY 20 2012
 
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS
WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO NOW HAS SUFFICIENT CENTER DEFINITION AND
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
BAND...CONSISTENT WITH MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR ANALYZED BY THE
SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS SATELLITE ANALYSIS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET TO 30 KT BASED ON A DVORAK DATA-T NUMBER OF 2.0 FROM TAFB.
WHILE THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATERS THROUGH 72
HOURS OR SO...THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING FOR
THE FIRST DAY OR SO UNTIL THE SHEAR RELAXES A BIT...AND THEN STEADY
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...LITTLE CHANGE
IS SHOWN AS THE CYCLONE TURNS NORTHWARD...MOVES TOWARD COOLER
WATERS AND ENCOUNTERS A LITTLE STRONGER SHEAR. THE NHC FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND THE HWRF THROUGH 72
HOURS AND CLOSER TO THE LGEM AFTER THAT TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/04...AS THE CENTER
WAS NOT VERY WELL DEFINED EARLIER IN THE DAY. A SLOW WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE
DEPRESSION MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EAST
PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY TUESDAY...THE CYCLONE WILL TURN
NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES INTO A
WEAKNESS LEFT BY THE RETREATING PACIFIC RIDGE. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH FOLLOWED BY A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION ARE EXPECTED DURING
DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 AS THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LONGWAVE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...WHICH SHOULD
IMPART INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CYCLONE. THE NHC
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE EAST OF THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE FAST MOTION
OF THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SEEMS A BIT UNREALISTIC...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE SLOWER ECMWF...GFS...AND GFS PARALLEL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. 

USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK FORECAST...
ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5 WHERE AVERAGE NHC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS
ARE 175 TO 225 MILES. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0300Z  9.3N  99.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z  9.5N 100.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  22/0000Z 10.2N 100.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  22/1200Z 11.0N 101.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  23/0000Z 12.0N 102.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  24/0000Z 13.5N 103.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  25/0000Z 15.5N 102.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  26/0000Z 17.5N 101.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

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