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Tropical Depression TWO-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

Issued at 200 AM PDT MON MAY 21 2012

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 210850
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
200 AM PDT MON MAY 21 2012
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE BAND OF CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CIRCULATION HAS PROPAGATED WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER WHILE A
NEW BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION
OF THE LARGE DEPRESSION.  IT APPEARS THAT THE CIRCULATION IS NOT
VERTICALLY ALIGNED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION DUE TO MODERATE EASTERLY
SHEAR.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT...WHICH IS A
COMPROMISE OF DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 1.5 AND 2.5 FROM SAB AND
TAFB...RESPECTIVELY.

GIVEN THE SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE DEPRESSION AND THE EASTERLY
SHEAR...STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD BE GRADUAL. 
THEREAFTER...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE AND THE CYCLONE COULD INTENSIFY AT A FASTER RATE AS SHOWN
BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.  IN FACT...ALL OF THE RELIABLE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE SLIGHTLY MORE CONSERVATIVE LGEM MODEL. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/6. THE
DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS AS IT IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS
THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND A TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY
DURING THE 72-120 HOUR TIME PERIOD WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE
TO TURN NORTHWARD...AND THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MEXICO.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...BUT THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR WEST THE
CYCLONE WILL MOVE BEFORE RECURVING. OVERALL...THE 0000 UTC MODEL
RUNS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD...WITH THE GFS PARALLEL AND UKMET MODELS
ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE AND THE GFDL...HWRF...AND
GFS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED
WESTWARD AND LIES ALONG EASTERN SIDE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. 
   
USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK FORECAST...
ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5 WHERE AVERAGE NHC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS
ARE 175 TO 225 MILES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0900Z  9.4N 100.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z  9.7N 100.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 10.5N 101.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  22/1800Z 11.6N 103.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  23/0600Z 12.7N 104.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  24/0600Z 15.0N 104.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  25/0600Z 17.0N 104.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  26/0600Z 19.0N 103.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 

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