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Tropical Depression TWO-E Forecast Discussion Number 3

Issued at 800 AM PDT MON MAY 21 2012

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 211448
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
800 AM PDT MON MAY 21 2012
 
THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY HAS SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION
WITH NO DISTINCT PATTERN...AND THEY ARE REVOLVING AROUND A CENTER
THAT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  MICROWAVE DATA HAS SUGGESTED
THAT THE CENTER IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...BUT
UNTIL WE GET SOME ADDITIONAL VISIBLE IMAGES NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS ARE
BEING MADE.  DVORAK FINAL T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE
T2.0...AND THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT.

THE CYCLONE IS MOVING WESTWARD WITH A LONG-TERM MOTION OF 270/7 KT
TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH THAT IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO...BUT THE HIGH IS NOT THAT STRONG AND IS EXPECTED TO BE
REPLACED BY A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY.  AS A RESULT OF
THIS...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MEXICO BY FRIDAY WHEN
A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE
TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD...AND THE NEW
FORECAST LIES ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE...ROUGHLY BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF.  DESPITE THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE...
THE MODELS ARE MORE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THAN USUAL...ESPECIALLY AT 72
AND 96 HOURS...AND THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE DEPRESSION
WILL RECURVE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM SINCE
THE CONVECTION HAS NOT YET COALESCED AROUND THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION DUE TO DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
INCREASING OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY.  THE FORECAST
INTENSITIES SHOWN BY THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS DIVERGE AFTER ABOUT
12 HOURS...WITH SHIPS BEING THE MORE AGGRESSIVE OF THE TWO.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE STATISTICAL MODELS THROUGH
THE FIRST 48 HOURS BUT THEN REACHES A PEAK INTENSITY CLOSER TO THE
SHIPS SOLUTION AT 72 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...NEARLY ALL THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES A DECREASE IN INTENSITY...AND THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS AT
THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE.
 
USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK FORECAST...
ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5 WHERE AVERAGE NHC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS
ARE 175 TO 225 MILES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/1500Z  9.2N 101.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z  9.6N 101.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 10.6N 103.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 11.8N 104.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  23/1200Z 12.9N 105.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  24/1200Z 15.0N 105.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  25/1200Z 17.0N 104.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  26/1200Z 19.0N 103.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 

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