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Tropical Storm ALETTA Forecast Discussion Number 8

Issued at 200 AM PDT WED MAY 16 2012

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 160832
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012012
200 AM PDT WED MAY 16 2012
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE
CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO FIND ON IR IMAGES BUT RECENT MICROWAVE
DATA SUGGEST THAT IT COULD BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF AN AREA
OF CONVECTION. NEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AWAY FROM
THE ALLEGED CENTER...BUT ARE NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF INCREASING
ORGANIZATION. GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING ADVERSE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS THE SHEAR
INCREASES AND DRY AIR APPROACHES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
GRADUAL WEAKENING...CLOSE TO THE RATE SUGGESTED BY THE LGEM
GUIDANCE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE
IS 285/8. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE NEW GUIDANCE
INSISTS ON A TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST BEYOND 36 HOURS
AS ALETTA BECOMES STEERED BY THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS TRACK WAS
ALREADY INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST AND IS
EMPHASIZED IN THIS ONE. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT THE CYCLONE
BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND MEANDERS INSTEAD AS IT DEGENERATES
INTO A REMANT LOW.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0900Z 11.9N 111.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 12.0N 112.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 12.4N 114.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  17/1800Z 12.8N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  18/0600Z 13.0N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  19/0600Z 14.0N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/0600Z 15.0N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

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