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Tropical Storm BUD Forecast Discussion Number 10

Issued at 200 AM PDT WED MAY 23 2012

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 230840
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
200 AM PDT WED MAY 23 2012
 
THE CENTER OF BUD HAS BEEN EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO LOCATED IN
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERNIGHT.  A FEW MICROWAVE OVERPASSES
FROM EARLIER IN THE EVENING SHOWED THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR
THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN T2.5 AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT.
 
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT
SURPRISING THAT BUD HAS NOT INTENSIFIED AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR
APPEARS TO HAVE DECREASED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
OVERALL...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR MODEST
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
CERTAINLY LESS AGGRESSIVE IN STRENGTHENING BUD AND NOW THE ONLY
MODEL THAT SHOWS SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS THE GFDL.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED DURING
THE NEXT 36 HOURS...BUT SHOWS A SLIGHTLY LOWER PEAK INTENSITY THAN
IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  IN 2-3 DAYS...MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS...AND DRIER AIR ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE WEAKENING.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/10.  IT APPEARS THAT BUD IS
BEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN AS EXPECTED.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
TURN NORTHWARD AND DECELERATE EVEN MORE LATER TODAY AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEAKENS.  IN ABOUT 24
HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  AS
BUD MOVES NORTHEASTWARD IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A
SHALLOW SYSTEM.  AFTER THIS OCCURS...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
SLOW DOWN AND TURN WESTWARD...THEN SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND LIES BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.  ALTHOUGH THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME 
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
OFFSHORE...THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF BUD THAT INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0900Z 13.3N 106.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 14.1N 107.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 14.9N 107.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 15.7N 107.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  25/0600Z 16.8N 106.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  26/0600Z 18.5N 106.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  27/0600Z 18.5N 106.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  28/0600Z 18.0N 107.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 

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