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Tropical Storm BUD Forecast Discussion Number 21

Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI MAY 25 2012

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 260236
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
800 PM PDT FRI MAY 25 2012

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BUD HAS BECOME VERY
DISORGANIZED...WITH NO CONVECTION OCCURRING AT THIS TIME. 
HOWEVER...MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A SMALL AND WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER STILL EXISTS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 50 KT...BASED MAINLY ON
EXTRAPOLATION FROM EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA...AND THIS COULD BE
GENEROUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/6.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  BUD SHOULD CONTINUE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK
TONIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES
THE COAST OF MEXICO.  AFTER 12-24 H...THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE
COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF BUD.  THIS MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.

A COMBINATION OF MODERATE SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT...AND INTERACTION WITH THE COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CAUSE
BUD TO CONTINUE WEAKENING.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A DEPRESSION BY 24 H AND A REMNANT LOW BY 48
H.  IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN...BUD COULD DISSIPATE FASTER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

DESPITE THE CURRENT LACK OF CONVECTION...THERE IS STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND DANGEROUS MUD SLIDES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN THE STATES OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...
JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0300Z 19.7N 105.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 20.3N 105.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 20.3N 105.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  27/1200Z 20.2N 106.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  28/0000Z 19.7N 106.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

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