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Tropical Storm BUD Forecast Discussion Number 8

Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE MAY 22 2012

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 222033
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
200 PM PDT TUE MAY 22 2012
 
BUD CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
PARTIALLY EXPOSED BENEATH A RECENT BLOW-UP OF CONVECTION.  A
CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPS AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...BUT AN APPARENT DRY SLOT HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION.  DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED
FROM EARLIER TODAY...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT.
 
BUD HAS TURNED NORTHWESTWARD AND SPED UP A BIT WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION OF 305/12 KT.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
REASONING...AND THE CYCLONE IS STILL EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DURING THAT TIME...BUT THE ENVELOPE
OF SOLUTIONS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST.  THE NHC FORECAST
THROUGH DAY 3 IS LIKEWISE NUDGED TO THE WEST...LYING ON THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE.  ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS...THE
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION OF BUD WILL BE IMPEDED BY A MID-LEVEL HIGH BUILDING OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO ON DAYS 4 AND 5.  THE NHC DAY 4 AND 5 FORECAST
POSITIONS ARE NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AND KEEP
THE CENTER OF BUD OFFSHORE THE MEXICAN COAST.
 
THE ANALYZED VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT THAT BELLIGERENT AT THE
MOMENT...AND IT IS SOMEWHAT OF A QUANDARY WHY BUD HAS NOT BEEN ABLE
TO STRENGTHEN.  THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX FURTHER OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THE AMOUNT OF TIME AVAILABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION IS DECREASING.  ONE OF THE REASONS FOR THAT MAY BE
A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 600 AND 250 MB THAT WILL BE
IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION IN A FEW DAYS...AS
SHOWN BY FORECAST CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.  THE
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE VORTEX WEAKENING AS IT HEADS
TOWARD MEXICO...AND THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE NO LONGER BRINGS BUD
TO HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS BUD
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HOURS FOLLOWED
BY WEAKENING ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.  THIS SOLUTION IS HIGHER THAN THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AT NEARLY ALL FORECAST TIMES.
 
EVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WEAKER CYCLONE
STAYING OFF THE MEXICAN COAST...EFFECTS FROM BUD COULD STILL REACH
THE COAST.  WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES BASED ON NHC 5-YEAR MEAN
ERRORS STILL SHOW A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS AT COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF JALISCO...
COLIMA...AND MICHOACAN.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/2100Z 12.0N 105.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 12.6N 106.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 13.5N 107.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 14.4N 107.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z 15.4N 106.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  25/1800Z 17.5N 105.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  26/1800Z 18.5N 105.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  27/1800Z 18.0N 105.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 

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