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Tropical Storm BUD Forecast/Advisory Number 10

Issued at 0900 UTC WED MAY 23 2012

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 230839
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
0900 UTC WED MAY 23 2012
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 106.5W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  35 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  45SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 106.5W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.1N 107.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.9N 107.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.7N 107.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.8N 106.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.5N 106.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 18.5N 106.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 18.0N 107.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 106.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 

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