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Tropical Storm BUD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE MAY 22 2012

000
FOPZ12 KNHC 220838
PWSEP2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012               
0900 UTC TUE MAY 22 2012                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
10.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       1       1       X       1      11      25
TROP DEPRESSION 13       8       5       1       3      21      29
TROPICAL STORM  85      78      57      28      30      50      40
HURRICANE        2      13      37      71      65      18       6
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        2      11      31      42      39      14       6
HUR CAT 2        X       1       5      19      17       3       1
HUR CAT 3        X       X       2       8       9       1       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       2       2       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   40KT    50KT    60KT    75KT    80KT    60KT    50KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)   1(13)
P VALLARTA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)  10(27)   2(29)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
BARRA NAVIDAD  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)  12(29)   2(31)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)
MANZANILLO     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)  11(26)   2(28)
L CARDENAS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)
L CARDENAS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   9(19)   3(22)
ZIHUATANEJO    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
ZIHUATANEJO    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)
 
ACAPULCO       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)   1(10)
 
P MALDONADO    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)
 
CLIPPERTON IS  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    

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