Text size

Send us your thoughts and testimonials about our site and services

Tropical Storm BUD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

Issued at 0300 UTC WED MAY 23 2012

000
FOPZ12 KNHC 230235
PWSEP2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012               
0300 UTC WED MAY 23 2012                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       1       2       1       8      28      43
TROP DEPRESSION 13      15      14      11      27      36      34
TROPICAL STORM  85      76      68      60      53      34      22
HURRICANE        2       8      17      28      12       3       1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        2       7      14      22      11       2       1
HUR CAT 2        X       1       2       4       1       X       X
HUR CAT 3        X       X       1       1       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   40KT    45KT    50KT    55KT    50KT    35KT    25KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)   3(12)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   4(16)   2(18)
P VALLARTA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  19(24)   4(28)   1(29)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
BARRA NAVIDAD  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  17(22)   4(26)   3(29)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)
MANZANILLO     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   9(12)   2(14)   3(17)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)   2(11)
 
ACAPULCO       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   4(11)   2(13)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN                                               

Comments are closed.