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Tropical Storm CARLOTTA Forecast Discussion Number 6

Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 150845
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012
200 AM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012
 
THE INNER CORE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...AND A
SMALL BUT RAGGED CDO HAS FORMED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KT BASED ON CONSENSUS
SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE
APPEARANCE OF AT LEAST HALF AN EYEWALL IN A 15/0348Z AMSU OVERPASS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/09 KT. CARLOTTA REMAINS ON THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CARLOTTA MOVING IN A NORTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTERWARDS...A BLOCKING
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF CARLOTTA ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY FORCE THE STORM ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BY 36 HOURS...AND WESTWARD BY 48 HOURS BUT
AT A MUCH SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...THE
BLOCKING RIDGE IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO A BROAD TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE U.S.
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH WILL RESULT
IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. AS A RESULT...CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO
DURING DAYS 3-5. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
DEVELOPING TRACK SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
EASTWARD COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW
THAT WOULD FORCE CARLOTTA INLAND OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAIN RANGE OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER OF
CARLOTTA JUST OFFSHORE AS INDICATED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.

RAPID INTENSIFICATION NOW APPEARS LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE RAGGED AND
ELONGATED APPEARANCE OF THE CDO FEATURE ALONG WITH MODEST EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE
CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND OTHER FAVORABLE OCEANIC AND
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING AT A
NORMAL RATE OF AT LEAST ONE T-NUMBER PER DAY...AND THAT EXPECTATION
IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
CARLOTTA COULD PEAK AT 85-90 KT BETWEEN THE 24- AND 36-HOUR
FORECAST PERIODS BEFORE WEAKENING BEGINS WHEN THE CYCLONE INTERACTS
WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MEXICO BY 36 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...
HWRF...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS.
 
USERS SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...AS ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE ADVISORY TRACK WOULD BRING
THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA ONTO THE COAST OF MEXICO.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0900Z 13.2N  95.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 14.1N  96.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 15.2N  97.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 15.9N  98.3W   80 KT  90 MPH...NEAR COAST
 48H  17/0600Z 16.3N  99.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...NEAR COAST
 72H  18/0600Z 16.5N  99.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...NEAR COAST
 96H  19/0600Z 16.2N  99.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...NEAR COAST
120H  20/0600Z 16.0N  99.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...NEAR COAST
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

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