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Tropical Storm CARLOTTA Forecast/Advisory Number 5

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUN 15 2012

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 150231
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012
0300 UTC FRI JUN 15 2012
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO PUNTA MALDONADO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF ACAPULCO TO CABO
CORRIENTES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOTTA.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N  94.7W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 45NE  25SE  45SW  45NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  45SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N  94.7W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N  94.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 13.5N  95.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  45SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 14.8N  96.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.7N  97.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.2N  98.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.5N 100.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 16.5N 100.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 16.5N 100.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N  94.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 

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