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Tropical Storm CARLOTTA Public Advisory Number 5

Issued at 800 PM PDT THU JUN 14 2012

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 150231
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012
800 PM PDT THU JUN 14 2012
 
...CARLOTTA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 94.7W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 460 MI...745 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO PUNTA MALDONADO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF ACAPULCO TO CABO
CORRIENTES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOTTA.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.7 WEST. CARLOTTA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR
OVER THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  CARLOTTA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A STRONG RAINBAND IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC ALREADY APPROACHING THE COAST. THIS RAINBAND WILL
LIKELY BRING HEAVY SQUALLS LATER TONIGHT.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
RAINFALL...CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-5 INCHES...75-125 MM...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10-12 INCHES...250-300 MM...OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF
GUERRERO...OAXACA...CHIAPAS...AS WELL AS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF GUATEMALA.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

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