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Tropical Storm CARLOTTA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 14 2012

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 142033
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012               
2100 UTC THU JUN 14 2012                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       2      12      31      45      50
TROP DEPRESSION  1       1       9      18      23      25      21
TROPICAL STORM  88      43      36      35      36      28      26
HURRICANE       11      56      54      35      10       3       3
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       10      47      36      22       8       3       2
HUR CAT 2        1       7      12       9       2       X       X
HUR CAT 3        X       2       5       4       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       1       1       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   55KT    70KT    80KT    80KT    60KT    45KT    45KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)  10(12)   2(14)   1(15)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)  11(17)   2(19)   1(20)
ZIHUATANEJO    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ACAPULCO       34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)  15(24)  10(34)   2(36)   1(37)
ACAPULCO       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   1(12)   X(12)
ACAPULCO       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
P MALDONADO    34  1   4( 5)  24(29)  16(45)   5(50)   3(53)   X(53)
P MALDONADO    50  X   X( X)   7( 7)  12(19)   3(22)   2(24)   X(24)
P MALDONADO    64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
P ANGEL        34  1  34(35)  32(67)   4(71)   2(73)   2(75)   X(75)
P ANGEL        50  X   4( 4)  20(24)   3(27)   2(29)   1(30)   X(30)
P ANGEL        64  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
HUATULCO       34  1  31(32)  29(61)   4(65)   2(67)   3(70)   1(71)
HUATULCO       50  X   4( 4)  13(17)   3(20)   2(22)   1(23)   X(23)
HUATULCO       64  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
TAPACHULA      34  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)
 
P SAN JOSE     34  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    

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