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Tropical Storm DANIEL Forecast Discussion Number 10

Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 06 2012

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 061438
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 06 2012
 
THE INFRARED PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS IMPROVED A LITTLE OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS AS A RAGGED CDO FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH OF
THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION. HOWEVER...RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
STILL SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION OF DANIEL IS TILTED
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH HEIGHT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 60 KT
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 1200Z TAFB AND SAB DVORAK ESTIMATES.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE DANIEL CROSSES THE 26C ISOTHERM. THE NHC
FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS THINKING AND IS ABOVE MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE THROUGH 36 HOURS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT TIME AS
THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE IVCN CONSENSUS FROM
48 HOURS ONWARD...AND SHOWS DANIEL BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.
THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...SHOWING
DANIEL TURNING WESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATER IN
THE PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND CLOSE TO THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.  

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/1500Z 14.8N 114.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 15.1N 116.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 15.2N 118.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 15.4N 120.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 15.6N 123.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z 16.3N 128.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  10/1200Z 16.5N 134.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  11/1200Z 16.5N 141.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

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