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Tropical Storm DANIEL Forecast Discussion Number 26

Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 101432
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012
 
THE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER OF DANIEL CONTINUES TO
SHRINK AND WARM.  CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 55 TO 65
KT...AND THE OBJECTIVE SCHEME FROM THE UW-CIMSS ADT YIELDS AN
ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 45 KT.  BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THESE NUMBERS...
THE WINDS ARE LOWERED TO 55 KT.  DANIEL IS MOVING ACROSS A
SOUTHWARD-PROTRUDING TONGUE OF COOLER SSTS OF ROUGHLY 24C...BUT THE
STORM WILL ACTUALLY BE REACHING SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS THE FARTHER
WEST IT MOVES.  HOWEVER...NORTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND THAT SHOULD CURB ANY RE-STRENGTHENING OF
THE CYCLONE.  THE NHC FORECAST CLOSELY MIRRORS THE GRADUAL DECAY
SHOWN BY THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.  DANIEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS AND DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH BY DAY 4.

DANIEL CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST...OR 270/14 KT...TO THE SOUTH OF A
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.  SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A SHALLOWER SYSTEM...A TRACK ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS FAVORED.  THE NEW NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS JUST A BIT SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND CLOSE TO THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS.

BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...DANIEL SHOULD CROSS 140W INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY WITHIN THE
NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/1500Z 15.3N 135.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 15.3N 137.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  11/1200Z 15.3N 140.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  12/0000Z 15.3N 143.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  12/1200Z 15.2N 146.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  13/1200Z 15.0N 152.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 

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