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Tropical Storm DANIEL Forecast Discussion Number 27

Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 102038
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012
 
A RATHER SMALL AMORPHOUS BLOB IS ALL THAT REMAINS OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DANIEL.  A BLEND OF THE LOWERED CURRENT
INTENSITY AND FINAL-T NUMBERS FROM BOTH AGENCIES RESULTS IN
AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT.  DANIEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN
AS IT TRAVERSES COOLER 24-25C SSTS AND ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  ACCORDINGLY...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS AND DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS A COMPROMISE OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY
GUIDANCE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT.  THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL IS FORECAST TO
KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING UNTIL DISSIPATION.
THE NHC FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND THE GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS. 

BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...DANIEL SHOULD CROSS 140W INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/2100Z 15.3N 136.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 15.3N 138.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  11/1800Z 15.3N 141.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  12/0600Z 15.3N 144.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  12/1800Z 15.3N 147.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  13/1800Z 15.0N 154.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
 

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