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Tropical Storm DANIEL Forecast Discussion Number 28

Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 110231
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012
 
DANIEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS THIS EVENING.  THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE NOW CONSISTS OF AN EXPOSED SWIRL OF LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  THE INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 35 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS OBJECTIVE
AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS.  DANIEL IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION VERY SOON AND BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AS IT ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND REMAINS OVER 
SSTS OF 24-25 DEGREES CELSIUS.
 
DANIEL IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 KT.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD
MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL HEADING AND FORWARD SPEED UNTIL DISSIPATION
IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.  THE UPDATED TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE EVENLOPE AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY.
 
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...DANIEL SHOULD CROSS INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0300Z 15.4N 138.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 15.5N 140.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  12/0000Z 15.5N 143.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  12/1200Z 15.5N 146.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  13/0000Z 15.5N 149.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  14/0000Z 15.0N 156.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 

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