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Tropical Storm DANIEL Forecast Discussion Number 29

Issued at 200 AM PDT WED JUL 11 2012

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 110850
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012
200 AM PDT WED JUL 11 2012
 
DANIEL IS ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 14 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SMALL CYCLONE MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED TO ITS NORTH
AND NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCE. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...DANIEL SHOULD CROSS OVER INTO THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC BASIN LATER THIS MORNING.

ONLY A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS...WHICH IS SHEARED TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF DANIEL. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY AN UW-CIMSS ADT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.6/37 KT. DANIEL SHOULD WEAKEN FURTHER AS
IT MOVES OVER RELATIVELY COOL WATERS AND INTO A REGION OF STRONGER
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DANIEL WILL LIKELY BECOME A DEPRESSION DURING
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY
MODELS...WHICH SHOW DISSIPATION BY 72 HOURS.
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE ADVISORIES AND DISCUSSIONS
WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU
HAWAII.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0900Z 15.4N 139.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 15.5N 142.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  12/0600Z 15.5N 145.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  12/1800Z 15.5N 148.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  13/0600Z 15.4N 151.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  14/0600Z 14.8N 157.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  15/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

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