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Tropical Storm DANIEL Forecast Discussion Number 7

Issued at 200 PM PDT THU JUL 05 2012

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 052048
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012
200 PM PDT THU JUL 05 2012
 
DANIEL HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BANDING FEATURES ARE BECOMING MORE PROMINENT
ALONG WITH A RATHER SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW PATTERN.  A BLEND OF THE
TAFB/SAB SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS GIVES AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50
KT. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS UNDER LIGHT SHEAR AND OVER WARM WATER.
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY...WITH THE SHIPS INDEX
GIVING A 26 PERCENT CHANCE OF THAT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES
NEAR THE SHIPS MODEL.  IN A FEW DAYS...DANIEL WILL LIKELY BE MOVING
OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING.
 
DANIEL IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER AND MORE TOWARD THE WEST...WITH AN
ESTIMATE OF 280/11.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED ON A
TRACK TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER
IS THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE.  WITH
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CONSENSUS AIDS...THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE FASTER
THAN BEFORE.  

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/2100Z 14.2N 111.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 14.5N 113.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 14.8N 115.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 15.1N 117.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 15.3N 119.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 15.7N 124.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  09/1800Z 16.0N 130.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  10/1800Z 16.5N 136.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

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