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Tropical Storm DANIEL Forecast Discussion Number 8

Issued at 800 PM PDT THU JUL 05 2012

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 060245
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012
800 PM PDT THU JUL 05 2012
 
A WINDSAT OVERPASS FROM 0116 UTC AND GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATE THAT
DANIEL IS TILTED A BIT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH HEIGHT.  DESPITE THE
TILT...DANIEL HAS STRENGTHENED...AND THE INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 55
KT BASED ON CONSENSUS DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE
UW-CIMSS ADT.
 
THE ESTIMATED MOTION IS THE SAME AS BEFORE...280/11 KT.  A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA IS
FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...KEEPING DANIEL
ON A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.  THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST SINCE THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
GREATER-THAN-NORMAL AGREEMENT.
 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.  SINCE THE RI INDEX
SHOWS A 3 IN 10 CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM.  AFTER 36 HOURS...THE
VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW...BUT DANIEL WILL BE
MOVING OVER WATERS COLDER THAN 26C AND THROUGH A MORE STABLE AIR
MASS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED IN THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
FROM DAY 2 AND BEYOND.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0300Z 14.4N 113.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 14.6N 114.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 14.9N 116.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 15.1N 119.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 15.4N 121.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 16.0N 126.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  10/0000Z 16.5N 132.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  11/0000Z 17.0N 138.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 

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