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Tropical Storm EMILIA Forecast Discussion Number 22

Issued at 800 PM PDT THU JUL 12 2012

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 130234
TCDEP5
 
HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
800 PM PDT THU JUL 12 2012
 
EMILIA HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING...WITH THE EYE FILLING 
IN BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHORTLY BEFORE 0000
UTC.  RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT ONLY THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION
OF THE EYEWALL REMAINS INTACT AND THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NEAR
THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS.  THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 75 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE
LATEST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS AND
SUPPORTED BY A RECENT CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 73 KT.  THE
HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEADILY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 24-25 DEGREES
CELSIUS AND INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING FOR THE FIRST 48
HOURS THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.
 
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT.  EMILIA
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE HEADING WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS TO ITS NORTH.  LITTLE CHANGE
WAS REQUIRED FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND THE NEW TRACK IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST GFS...ECWMF...AND THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/0300Z 15.4N 123.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  13/1200Z 15.5N 125.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  14/0000Z 15.8N 127.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  14/1200Z 16.0N 130.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  15/0000Z 16.2N 132.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  16/0000Z 16.4N 137.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  17/0000Z 16.3N 142.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  18/0000Z 16.3N 146.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 

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