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Tropical Storm EMILIA Forecast Discussion Number 25

Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 132045
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012
 
EMILIA CONSISTS OF A VERY TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A PATCH OF
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED
TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON A DECREASE OF THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK T-NUMBERS. SINCE MOST OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER
COOL WATERS...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND EMILIA COULD
BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY OR EVEN EARLIER. SOME INTERMITTENT
BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP BEFORE DISSIPATION.
 
BECAUSE EMILIA HAS BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE CYCLONE
WILL MOST LIKELY MOVE WESTWARD AT 12 TO 14 KNOTS...STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/2100Z 15.5N 127.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 15.6N 129.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 15.8N 132.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 15.8N 135.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  15/1800Z 15.8N 138.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  16/1800Z 15.5N 144.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  17/1800Z 15.0N 150.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  18/1800Z 15.0N 155.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

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