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Tropical Storm EMILIA Forecast Discussion Number 26

Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 140239
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012
 
THE WEAKENING TREND OF EMILIA HAS TEMPORARILY HALTED THIS EVENING.
THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING A SMALL TONGUE OF SLIGHTLY
WARMER WATER....25 TO 25.5 DEGREES CELSIUS.  THIS HAS CAUSED A
BIT OF AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IN SEVERAL BANDS THAT ARE
WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS
45 KT...AND IS BASED ON EARLIER ASCAT DATA AND RECENT SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK SATELLITE CI NUMBERS OF 3.0.  WEAKENING SHOULD RESUME 
SATURDAY MORNING AS EMILIA PASSES WEST OF THE AXIS OF THE
WARMER WATER AND INTO A STABLE AND DRIER AIRMASS.  THE CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.
 
EMILIA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD IN LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH.  THE NHC
FORECAST IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND
IS NEAR THE SPEED OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0300Z 15.5N 128.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 15.5N 130.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 15.6N 133.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 15.6N 136.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  16/0000Z 15.6N 139.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/0000Z 15.3N 145.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  18/0000Z 15.0N 151.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/0000Z 15.0N 157.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 

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