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Tropical Storm EMILIA Forecast Discussion Number 27

Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 140831
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012

CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE WANE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS NEAR
THE CENTER OF EMILIA.  HOWEVER...ASCAT DATA FROM SHORTLY BEFORE
0600 UTC SUGGESTED THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE STILL ABOUT 45 KT...SO
THIS VALUE WILL STAY AS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED.  A GRADUAL
WEAKENING SHOULD RESUME LATER TODAY AS EMILIA MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS AND NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT
36 HOURS...AND GIVEN THE RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS...THIS TRANSITION 
COULD OCCUR SOONER.  
 
EMILIA CONTINUES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE TO
THE WEST NEAR OR SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THAT SPEED DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS IT IS STEERED TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. 
THE NEW FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...
STAYING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0900Z 15.5N 130.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 15.5N 132.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 15.6N 135.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 15.6N 137.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  16/0600Z 15.5N 140.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/0600Z 15.5N 147.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  18/0600Z 15.0N 153.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/0600Z 15.0N 158.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

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