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Tropical Storm EMILIA Forecast Discussion Number 5

Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN JUL 08 2012

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 082033
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 08 2012
 
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF EMILIA HAS BEEN IMPROVING OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME ELONGATION TO THE
NORTH...BANDING FEATURES ARE BECOMING MORE PROMINENT AND CURVED
AROUND THE CYCLONE.  IN ADDITION...A WINDSAT MICROWAVE PASS
SUGGESTED A BANDING EYE WAS ATTEMPTING TO FORM.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 55 KT...WHICH CONTINUES TO LEAN ON SOMEWHAT
HIGHER MICROWAVE-BASED ESTIMATES.
 
NOW THAT THE INNER CORE IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED...IT APPEARS THAT
EMILIA COULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AT ANY TIME WITH WATER TEMPERATURES
NEAR 29C AND VERY LITTLE SHEAR.  THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION
INDEX ALSO SUGGESTS A 54 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 30 KT CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALTHOUGH THE PRECISE TIMING OF THE EVENT IS
DIFFICULT...IT IS PROBABLE THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR
SOMETIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  WEAKENING COULD BEGIN IN
ABOUT THREE DAYS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN SHEAR AND A DECREASE IN
SSTS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES AT ABOUT 285/13.  EMILIA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT LIES SOUTH OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC.  WHILE A TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO INDUCE A MORE POLEWARD MOTION AFTER THAT TIME...THE
BULK OF THE MODELS NOW SHOW RIDGING BUILDING IN BETWEEN THAT
FEATURE AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS RIDGE WOULD CAUSE EMILIA TO
TURN WESTWARD IN THE LONGER RANGE...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY AT THAT TIME FRAME.  THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
SOUTHWARD...BUT STILL LIES NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/2100Z 11.4N 107.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 12.1N 109.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 12.7N 111.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 13.4N 113.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 13.9N 115.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  11/1800Z 14.3N 118.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  12/1800Z 14.8N 122.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  13/1800Z 15.5N 126.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

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