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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Forecast Discussion Number 15

Issued at 800 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2015


000
WTPZ41 KNHC 160238
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015
800 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2015

The initial motion estimate is 290/06 kt. There is no significant
change to the previous track or intensity forecast reasonings. For
the next 96-120 hours, Enrique is forecast to remain in a sheared
environment while it moves slowly west-northwestward to westward
along the south side of a weakening mid-level ridge, and gradually
weaken as the cyclone moves over sub-25C SSTs and into a much drier
airmass.

Enrique is forecast to become a tropical depression on Thursday and
degenerate into a remnant low by Friday, after which the weak and
vertically shallow cyclone could drift southward or stall due to
weakening steering currents. The SHIPS statistical-dynamical
intensity model shows Enrique completely dissipating by 36 hours.
However, the tropical cyclone possesses a fairly large circulation,
which should take a longer-than-average amount of time to spin down.
As such, the solution of the GFS and ECMWF models holding onto the
remnant low through at least 96 hours has been preferred in this
advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 19.2N 134.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 19.8N 135.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 20.3N 136.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 20.5N 136.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  18/0000Z 20.3N 137.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/0000Z 19.8N 137.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/0000Z 19.7N 137.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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