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Tropical Storm FABIO Forecast Advisory Number 2

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 12 2012

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 121438
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012
1500 UTC THU JUL 12 2012
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 107.3W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 107.3W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 107.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 14.1N 108.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 15.0N 109.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.6N 111.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.0N 112.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.0N 115.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 19.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 21.5N 118.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 107.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 

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