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Tropical Storm FABIO Forecast Advisory Number 4

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 13 2012

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 130233
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012
0300 UTC FRI JUL 13 2012
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 109.0W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE  90SE   0SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 109.0W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 108.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 14.4N 110.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.1N 111.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.6N 113.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.0N 114.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.0N 116.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 19.0N 118.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 21.5N 119.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 109.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
 
 

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