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Tropical Storm FABIO Forecast Advisory Number 5

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 13 2012

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 130840
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012
0900 UTC FRI JUL 13 2012
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 109.6W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  60SE  50SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 100SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 109.6W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 109.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 14.8N 110.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  60SE  50SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 100SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.4N 112.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.8N 113.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.0N 115.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.1N 117.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 19.3N 119.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 22.0N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 109.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 

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