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Tropical Storm FABIO Forecast Discussion Number 24

Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 17 2012

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 172052
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 17 2012
 
FABIO CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...HOWEVER IT IS STILL PRODUCING
AN AREA OF WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE SLOWING
DECREASING AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 35 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  INCREASING SHEAR...COOL WATERS...AND AN UNFAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CAUSE FABIO TO WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOON...AND DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING WELL WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST
OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.

FABIO IS STILL MOVING NORTHWARD...ALBEIT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER 
SPEED THAN BEFORE.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 6 TO 8 KT UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE UPDATED
TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE
TO...BUT A LITTLER SLOWER THAN...THE GFS MODEL.
 
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FABIO
IS STILL EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THIS MOISTURE COULD ENHANCE
THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THAT REGION.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/2100Z 23.0N 120.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 24.2N 120.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 25.7N 120.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  19/0600Z 27.0N 119.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/1800Z 28.0N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 

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