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Tropical Storm GILMA Forecast Discussion Number 12

Issued at 800 PM PDT THU AUG 09 2012

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 100237
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072012
800 PM PDT THU AUG 09 2012
 
THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF GILMA HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A SMALL AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. A BLEND OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE
INTENSITY AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED ACROSS THE
26C ISOTHERM AND WILL MOVE OVER EVEN COOLER WATERS IN THE NEXT 2 TO
3 DAYS. GILMA SHOULD WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS AND
DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY 96 HOURS. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS IDENTICAL
TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM
MODELS. 

GILMA APPEARS TO HAVE JOGGED A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/05. OVERALL THERE
HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE NHC TRACK PHILOSOPHY. GILMA SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD
UNTIL DISSIPATION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WEAKENS. THE NEW NHC FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ABOUT A HALF A DEGREE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND IS CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE LEFT
OF THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0300Z 17.6N 119.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 18.2N 119.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 19.0N 119.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  11/1200Z 19.6N 120.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  12/0000Z 20.3N 120.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  13/0000Z 21.0N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

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