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Tropical Storm GILMA Forecast Discussion Number 14

Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 10 2012

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 101437
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072012
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 10 2012

DEEP CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER OF GILMA OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS...BUT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT
MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. GILMA IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE COLDER WATER AND
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEGIN TO TAKE THEIR TOLL. GILMA IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY SATURDAY EVENING AND
TO A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY MORNING AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO ITS EAST. 

GILMA HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WEST OF NORTH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/4 KT. GILMA IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ON A NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH RETREATS EASTWARD. THE
LATEST FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD BASED ON THE CURRENT MOTION. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THEREAFTER.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/1500Z 18.8N 119.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 19.4N 119.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  11/1200Z 20.1N 119.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  12/0000Z 20.6N 120.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  12/1200Z 21.1N 120.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  13/1200Z 21.7N 121.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER SCHAUER/BERG
 

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