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Tropical Storm GILMA Forecast Discussion Number 17

Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 11 2012

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 110835
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072012
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 11 2012
 
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH GILMA HAS COMPLETELY WITHERED AWAY
DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
FALLING QUICKLY...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 40 KT
BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS GILMA
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER COLD WATER AND IN A RELATIVELY STRONG
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE CYCLONE IS NOW FORECAST TO DEGENERATE
TO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS...BUT IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES
THIS COULD OCCUR EVEN SOONER. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE REMNANT
LOW OPENING INTO A TROUGH IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.
 
GILMA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST AS THE
SHALLOW SYSTEM IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
 
THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS AT 0552 UTC.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0900Z 20.0N 119.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 20.6N 120.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  12/0600Z 21.2N 120.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  12/1800Z 21.6N 121.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  13/0600Z 21.8N 122.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 

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