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Tropical Storm GILMA Forecast Discussion Number 5

Issued at 200 AM PDT WED AUG 08 2012

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 080849
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072012
200 AM PDT WED AUG 08 2012
 
A 0512Z METOP-A AMSU OVERPASS SHOWS THAT THE INNER CORE CONVECTION
OF GLIMA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A PARTIALLY
CLOSED EYE-LIKE FEATURE AND A WELL-DEVELOPED SPIRAL BAND TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AND THE SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPROVED MICROWAVE PRESENTATION SUPPORT INCREASING THE INITIAL
INTENSITY TO 60 KT.  THE WATER IS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS
LOW...THEREFORE...GILMA IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LATER ON...WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF LESS THAN 26C AND INTO A
MORE STABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WHICH AGREES WITH A CONSENSUS OF
THE LGEM...SHIPS...AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/11 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS MOVING IN
THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PRODUCED BY A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS SHOULD KEEP GILMA ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...WITH A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN FORWARD
SPEED...DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  AFTERWARD...THE GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW INTERACTION WITH A LARGE AREA OF BROAD LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...POSSIBLY THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
ERNESTO...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
PACIFIC AROUND DAY 3.  THIS CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN
SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW CONSIDERABLY OR STALL...AND THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE 96 AND 120 HOUR FORECAST POINTS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TVCE AND HFIP TV15 CONCENSUS MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0900Z 15.6N 116.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  08/1800Z 16.2N 117.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  09/0600Z 16.8N 118.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  09/1800Z 17.4N 119.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  10/0600Z 17.9N 120.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  11/0600Z 18.7N 121.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  12/0600Z 19.5N 122.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  13/0600Z 20.0N 122.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
 

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