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Tropical Storm HECTOR Forecast Discussion Number 10

Issued at 200 PM PDT MON AUG 13 2012

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 132038
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012
200 PM PDT MON AUG 13 2012
 
HECTOR HAS MADE A LITTLE COMEBACK. DEEP CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED
DURING THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS...AND THERE IS NOW LESS SEPARATION
BETWEEN THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND THE CONVECTIVE MASS. AN ASCAT PASS
AT 1740 UTC SHOWED RELIABLE MAXIMUM WINDS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KT.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 40 KT. THIS
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS ALSO IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. ALTHOUGH HECTOR HAS
RESTRENGTHENED TODAY...THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS
UNCHANGED. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR
CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE CYCLONE. HECTOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
SUB-26C WATERS IN 2 TO 3 DAYS...AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING
TREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE
RECENT STRENGTHENING...AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 270/6. A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR POSSIBLY NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN ABOUT
24 HOURS AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WEAKENS.
THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT THIS CYCLE...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION BUT LIES ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE MODIFIED BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT
PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/2100Z 18.0N 112.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 18.1N 113.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 18.3N 114.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 18.5N 115.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 18.8N 116.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  16/1800Z 19.7N 116.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  17/1800Z 20.5N 118.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  18/1800Z 21.5N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 

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