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Tropical Storm HECTOR Forecast Discussion Number 13

Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 14 2012

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 141434
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 14 2012

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTING TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED
CENTER OF HECTOR...AND IT HAS MOVED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CENTER
DURING THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB
ARE ABOUT THE SAME AS EARLIER...THEREFORE THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
HELD AT 40 KT. HECTOR CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY MODERATE EASTERLY
SHEAR...WHICH HAS KEPT THE CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE
CENTER DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALTHOUGH HECTOR CURRENTLY LIES
OVER 28C WATER TEMPERATURES...IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SUB-26C
WATERS IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. GIVEN THESE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS...HECTOR IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE
PERIOD AND SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 3. DISSIPATION IS NOW
SHOWN BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. 

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT HECTOR IS NOW GAINING SOME
LATITUDE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/5. A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE WEAKENS DUE TO A
DEEPENING DEEP-LAYER LOW SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF CALIFORNIA. A
TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST BEYOND A COUPLE OF DAYS AS
HECTOR BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM...AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/1500Z 18.1N 114.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 18.3N 115.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 18.7N 115.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  16/0000Z 19.1N 116.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  16/1200Z 19.7N 117.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  17/1200Z 20.5N 118.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  18/1200Z 21.0N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 

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