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Tropical Storm HECTOR Forecast Discussion Number 3

Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 11 2012

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 120243
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 11 2012
 
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT BANDING FEATURES HAVE INCREASED NEAR AND
TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER OF THE LARGE CYCLONE. SHIP OBSERVATIONS
ALONG WITH SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUGGEST THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS 35 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY. MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT HECTOR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING THAT CAN OCCUR. AFTER THAT TIME...WHILE THE
UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COULD WEAKEN...HECTOR WILL NEAR VERY
CLOSE TO COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND REMAINS
ABOVE THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE FORECAST
SIZE OF THE STORM HAS BEEN INCREASED.

IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THE INITIAL MOTION...BUT HECTOR
APPEARS TO BE MOVING 290/11...A BIT FASTER AND MORE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST THAN EARLIER. A RIDGE OVER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE HECTOR TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND
WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THAT TIME. IN A FEW DAYS...THE RIDGE COULD
WEAKEN AND STEER THE CYCLONE MORE TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-
NORTHWEST. WHILE MOST OF THE MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES EVEN BY 24 HOURS AS TO HOW
QUICKLY THE STORM WILL TURN SOUTH OF WEST...MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF HECTOR INTERACTING WITH THE ACTIVE ITCZ NEAR MEXICO.
WITH THE MODEL DIVERGENCE...IT IS USUALLY BEST TO STAY NEAR THE
MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH RESULTS IN A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE NHC
FORECAST THIS CYCLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/0300Z 18.5N 108.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  12/1200Z 18.8N 109.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  13/0000Z 18.7N 110.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  13/1200Z 18.5N 111.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  14/0000Z 18.4N 112.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  15/0000Z 18.8N 113.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  16/0000Z 20.0N 115.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  17/0000Z 21.5N 117.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

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