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Tropical Storm HECTOR Forecast Discussion Number 6

Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 12 2012

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 122033
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 12 2012
 
HECTOR REMAINS A HIGHLY SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE 
LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW EXPOSED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE 
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE MASS HAS BECOME EVEN MORE SEPARATED FROM THE CENTER
AND THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED.  A BLEND OF THE MOST RECENT DVORAK
DATA T- AND CI-NUMBERS SUPPORT KEEPING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT
40 KT.  THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AND IT APPEARS THAT HECTOR WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
STRENGTHENING.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN
LOWERED AND DOES NOT SHOW ANY ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION.  THIS IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE.  IN 2 TO 3
DAYS...HECTOR WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...IF NOT SOONER.

HECTOR HAS SLOWED DOWN DURING THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THE INITIAL
MOTION IS 270/6.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH.  THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS WELL WEST OF CALIFORNIA IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE HECTOR TO DECELERATE EVEN MORE AND TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS ALSO A LITTLE SLOWER  
AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NHC FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN THOSE
MODELS DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/2100Z 18.1N 110.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  13/0600Z 18.1N 111.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  13/1800Z 18.1N 112.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  14/0600Z 18.2N 113.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  14/1800Z 18.4N 114.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  15/1800Z 18.9N 116.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  16/1800Z 19.5N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  17/1800Z 20.3N 119.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 

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