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Tropical Storm HECTOR Forecast Discussion Number 8

Issued at 200 AM PDT MON AUG 13 2012

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 130834
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012
200 AM PDT MON AUG 13 2012
 
HECTOR CONTINUES TO BE BLASTED BY STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR...AND THE
LIMITED AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS DEVELOPING NEAR THE
CENTER IS QUICKLY BEING DISPLACED WESTWARD.  A RECENT ASCAT PASS
SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE MAY HAVE WEAKENED BELOW STORM
STRENGTH...BUT THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT BASED ON CURRENT
INTENSITY VALUES FROM TAFB.  DYNAMICAL MODELS NOW INDICATE THAT THE
SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN STRONG FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH SHOULD
PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT RESTRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE...AND SHOWS
HECTOR DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS. HOWEVER...
UNLESS THE CYCLONE DEVELOPS A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION LATER TODAY...HECTOR COULD DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE MUCH SOONER THAN INDICATED HERE.

SINCE THE SUN HAS SET OVER THE AREA...THE CENTER IS MUCH MORE
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AUTOMATED STATION AT
SOCORRO INDICATE THAT THE CENTER RECENTLY PASSED TO THE SOUTH OF
THE ISLAND.  BASED ON THESE SYNOPTIC DATA AND SATELLITE FIXES...MY
BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 270/6.  A WEAKENING RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF HECTOR SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  BY AROUND 72
HOURS...A MID-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COULD
INDUCE A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  HOWEVER BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD THE REMNANT LOW OF ERNESTO SHOULD TURN BACK TOWARD
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE SHALLOW CYCLONE FOLLOWS THE
LOWER-LAYER FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/0900Z 18.1N 111.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  13/1800Z 18.1N 112.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  14/0600Z 18.1N 113.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  14/1800Z 18.3N 114.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  15/0600Z 18.6N 115.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  16/0600Z 19.4N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 96H  17/0600Z 20.0N 118.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  18/0600Z 20.5N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

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