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Tropical Storm ILEANA Forecast Discussion Number 20

Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 01 2012

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 011442
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 01 2012
 
ILEANA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN AND MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS NOW DISAPPEARED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES...BUT THIS COULD
BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. WITH THE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE 23C
ISOTHERM SOON...WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY 24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION SHOULD DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/08. A WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE SOUTH OF DUE WEST
AS THE REMNANT LOW IS STEERED BY THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...
FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE LATEST CYCLE OF GLOBAL MODELS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/1500Z 23.0N 118.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 23.1N 120.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 23.2N 122.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  03/0000Z 23.0N 124.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  03/1200Z 22.8N 125.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  04/1200Z 22.5N 129.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/1200Z 22.0N 132.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

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