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Tropical Storm ILEANA Forecast Discussion Number 21

Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT SEP 01 2012

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 012038
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 01 2012
 
ILEANA IS NOW VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR A FEW SMALL CELLS
NEAR THE CENTER. THE 35-KT INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
THE LATEST DVORAK FINAL-T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. ILEANA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AS IT MOVES OVER COOL WATERS...AND THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER IF DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/09. ILEANA SHOULD TURN SOUTH OF
DUE WEST IN A DAY OR SO AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES STEERED BY THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AS THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
SHOWING A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF MOTION AFTER 24 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/2100Z 23.1N 119.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 23.1N 121.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 23.0N 123.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  03/0600Z 22.7N 125.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  03/1800Z 22.4N 126.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  04/1800Z 21.5N 130.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/1800Z 20.5N 133.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

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