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Tropical Storm ILEANA Forecast Discussion Number 22

Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 01 2012

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 020255
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 01 2012
 
ALTHOUGH ILEANA IS OVER WATERS NEAR 22C...A SMALL AREA OF COLD CLOUD
TOPS HAVE PERSISTED FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS NEAR THE CENTER. A
BLEND OF THE LATEST T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND
UW-CIMSS SUPPORT MAINTAINING ILEANA AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM
FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER EVEN COLDER
WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH STABLE
AIR TO ITS WEST SHOULD CAUSE ILEANA TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY. THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUAL
WEAKEN DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND DISSIPATE IN
4 TO 5 DAYS.

THE LATEST SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT ILEANA IS NOW MOVING DUE
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 7 KT. ILEANA...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...IS EXPECTED
TO TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT IS
STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0300Z 23.1N 120.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 23.0N 121.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 22.8N 123.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  03/1200Z 22.5N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/0000Z 22.1N 127.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/0000Z 21.0N 130.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0000Z 19.5N 134.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 

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