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Tropical Storm ILEANA Forecast Discussion Number 6

Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 28 2012

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 290237
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 28 2012
 
ILEANA APPEARS TO HAVE STRENGTHENED A LITTLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS EXPANDED SLIGHTLY...AND
CONVECTIVE CURVED BANDS...ALTHOUGH BROKEN AND NOT VERY DEEP...EXIST
IN MOST QUADRANTS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 0000 UTC WERE 45 KT
AND 50 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. THE ADT VALUES FROM
UW-CIMSS WERE NEAR 50 KT. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 50 KT. ADDITIONAL SLOW STRENGTHENING
SEEMS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS ILEANA REMAINS IN A
LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...IN A MOIST AIRMASS...AND OVER WARM
WATER. GIVEN THE EXPECTED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...ILEANA IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE
IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE OVER SUB-26C WATERS AND INTO MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THESE MORE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE
THE SYSTEM TO STEADILY WEAKEN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM HAS TURNED NORTHWESTWARD WITH A FORWARD SPEED OF
ABOUT 9 KT. THIS HEADING WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS A TROUGH MOVES TOWARD CALIFORNIA. A
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR EVEN THE WEST IS EXPECTED BEYOND 3
DAYS AS ILEANA BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND IS STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...TRENDING TOWARD THE CONSENSUS AIDS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0300Z 17.0N 111.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 17.8N 112.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 18.7N 113.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 19.6N 114.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  31/0000Z 20.3N 115.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  01/0000Z 21.5N 117.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  02/0000Z 22.2N 120.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  03/0000Z 22.5N 124.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 

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