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Tropical Storm ILEANA Forecast Discussion Number 7

Issued at 200 AM PDT WED AUG 29 2012

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 290830
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012
200 AM PDT WED AUG 29 2012
 
ILEANA HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE MORE TONIGHT. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES WERE A UNANIMOUS 55 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 55 KT.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
STORM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM
WATER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LGEM AND BRINGS
ILEANA TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS. IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS...COOLER WATERS ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASE IN SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND A DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD CAUSE A
WEAKENING TREND. ILEANA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 4 TO
5 DAYS WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR
22C.
 
THE CYCLONE IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT. THIS GENERAL
HEADING WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS THE STORM MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE CAUSED BY A TROUGH WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AFTER 48
HOURS...ILEANA SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD AS A RIDGE REBUILDS
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
FASTER AND SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0900Z 17.6N 111.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 18.5N 112.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 19.5N 113.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  30/1800Z 20.3N 114.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  31/0600Z 20.9N 115.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  01/0600Z 21.9N 118.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  02/0600Z 22.5N 121.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  03/0600Z 23.0N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 

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