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Tropical Storm ILEANA Forecast Discussion Number 8

Issued at 800 AM PDT WED AUG 29 2012

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 291431
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012
800 AM PDT WED AUG 29 2012
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS AND CONSISTS OF A ROUND AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OR 
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST NEAR THE CENTER WITH SOME CURVED BANDS. AN
AVERAGE OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS SUGGESTS AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS. BOTH ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS
FAVOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...AND ILEANA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE
AT ANY TIME TODAY. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING
OVER LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN GRADUAL WEAKENING. 
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL MODEL
LGEM. 

ILEANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ABOUT 9 KNOTS AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TOWARD AN
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP
ILEANA ON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. DURING THE LAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO BE A WEAK SHALLOW
SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY BE STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
THE NHC FORECAST WAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT NORTHWARD FOLLOWING THE
SOLUTION OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS. 

AN AUTOMATIC STATION IN SOCORRO ISLAND OPERATED BY THE MEXICAN NAVY
INDICATES THAT THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT HAS
EXPANDED.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/1500Z 18.2N 112.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 19.0N 113.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 20.0N 114.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  31/0000Z 21.0N 115.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  31/1200Z 21.5N 116.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  01/1200Z 23.0N 118.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  02/1200Z 23.5N 121.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  03/1200Z 24.0N 126.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

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