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Tropical Storm ILEANA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 28 2012

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 281439
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012               
1500 UTC TUE AUG 28 2012                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       X       2       7      25
TROP DEPRESSION  3       4       3       2      10      23      37
TROPICAL STORM  91      76      48      41      58      56      36
HURRICANE        6      20      49      57      31      14       3
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        6      17      38      39      24      12       2
HUR CAT 2        1       2       7      12       5       2       X
HUR CAT 3        X       X       3       5       2       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       1       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   50KT    55KT    65KT    70KT    60KT    50KT    35KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   4( 4)   5( 9)   4(13)   3(16)   X(16)   1(17)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   4( 4)  39(43)  13(56)   6(62)   1(63)   X(63)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   1( 1)  15(16)   9(25)   3(28)   1(29)   X(29)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)   1(11)   1(12)   X(12)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    

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