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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 12

Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 15 2014


000
WTPZ41 KNHC 152032
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 15 2014

The cloud pattern associated with Karina has been gradually
deteriorating during the day. Microwave data reveal that the center
continues to be located to the north of a small area of deep
convection. The upper-level outflow is very limited due to
northeasterly shear. Consequently, the Dvorak T-numbers have
continued to decrease, supporting a generous initial intensity of 45
knots. It appears that Karina will continue within an environment
unfavorable for strengthening, but not hostile enough to weaken the
cyclone either. The NHC forecast calls for no change in intensity
during the next 5 days, although there is a small possibility of
slight strengthening beyond 4 days, when the cyclone reaches warmer
waters. In fact, this is the solution of the HWRF model.

The best estimate of the initial motion is 280 degrees at 10 knots.
Karina continues to be steered by the flow around a persistent
subtropical ridge. Most of the global models build the ridge
westward beyond 3 days, and this pattern should force Karina to move
on a more west to west-southwest track with a decrease in forward
speed. By day 5, Karina will probably begin to meander within a
very weak steering flow. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous
one and follows the trend of the multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 17.6N 121.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 18.0N 122.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 18.3N 125.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 18.3N 127.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  17/1800Z 18.1N 129.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  18/1800Z 17.5N 131.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  19/1800Z 17.0N 134.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  20/1800Z 17.0N 135.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

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